Second Scottish IndyRef

PerryGunn · Post by **PerryGunn** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:37 am

I suppose this post is directed mainly at skelters and AlfaScozzesi but others may also have opinions on the matter...

First of all, I'd like to say that this isn't meant to be provocative or inflammatory, it's really to try to understand the logic behind some of the posts that have been made over the last day-or-so

I don't have any problem accepting that an independent Scotland could, at the very worst, make ends meet and survive as an independent country but, given that

- In the Independence Referendum the vote split was 55% to 45% in favour of remaining a member of the UK
- In the EU Referendum the vote split in Scotland was 62% to 38% in favour of remaining a member of the EU

These are separate events yet there seems to be an assumption that because Scotland wanted to remain part of the EU the people will default to splitting from the UK to stay with (or rejoin) the EU i.e. that a second Independence vote will be heavily influenced by the 'carrot' of EU Membership - surely it's a non sequitur to assume that because people voted 'Remain' they'll also vote for Independence.

Was there any firm indication during the Independence Referendum that the UK's EU Membership significantly affected the vote?

As the dust settles, people are likely to fall into three camps as far as their view of furture of Scotland is concerned
A - Independence & EU Membership
B - Independence and no EU Membership
C - Remain part of the UK with no EU Membership

When/if a second Independence Referendum takes place, those in the 'A' & 'C' camps above will have no problem deciding which way to vote, while those in the 'B' camp will have to decide if 'A' or 'C' is the lesser of two evils and I don't understand why the assumption seems to be that they'll head, en mass, for 'A'

As I said earlier, this isn't intended to be argumentative - I'd just like to understand the reasoning behind the assumption, at this point in time, that a second IndyRef will go in favour of Independence.

Flyingfifer · Post by **Flyingfifer** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:12 am

Basically in the last days of the independence campaign we had the 3 amigos (cam, clegg, miliband) all but suspend parliament to fly up here and deliver the now 'in'famous VOW. Although not a written part of this "Vow" continuing EU membership was a biiiig part of the case against Indy.

We were basically told that only by voting NO could we secure our position in the EU, this is now no longer the case and is added to the pile of now broken promises and lies that were fed to the Scottish People. Due to the broken promises, slashed budgets, tory government and now forced removal from the EU its become apparent that many previous NO voters regret their choice.

Angie4m · Post by **Angie4m** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:20 am

Right, I'm a C! Probably quite literally too

I've already heard enough on something that's not happened and might not/may never happen.

I'm fed up with Sturgeon telling everyone that The Scottish people have a Tory government that they didn't vote for. I'm Scottish and I did. I also voted Tory in the Scottish Elections and my locally elected MSP is Ruth Davidson

again tho, the amount of people who voted in the Scottish elections more people voted for other parties than for SNP, it was the same in the general election so you could turn that round and say well the majority of the people who voted in Scotland are governed by the SNP that they didn't vote for. Same for the MPs at Westminster.

Fed up of the tit for tat almost kids in the playground way the SNP MPs vote on English only items i.e. Sunday trading just because they can but if we moved voting on Scottish only items back to Westminster and English MPs voted on it and blocked it there would be outrage!

Being told that we are being dragged out of the EU (not Europe) against our will. So is half the f'ing UK you muppets!

I also don't like people telling me I voted No based on the fact we would be guaranteed to keep EU membership. No I didn't. To be honest back then I couldn't give too hoots about EU membership. How we have been lied to? No we've not, at the time that was the facts. Being lied to is people voting to leave based on the fact they were told in many campaigns that £350m a week sent to the EU would now be ploughed into the NHS, schools etc (btw these things in Scotland are dealt with under the Scottish government and their budget so who know what they would do) and then once they've got their way say, sorry that was a mistake and it's all a lot of bull. The fact is the year later there was a general election, the Tory mandate stated a vote on the EU, they got a majority government and like the SNP followed through on their mandate to hold a referendum. It didn't go to plan and we are where we are.

I voted Remain on Thursday but I had been a Leave voter until I started to think about the bigger picture more from a financial point of view and not just some of the rubbish things the EU have given us and stop us doing.

I don't believe that Scotland would be granted EU membership if they went it alone. By the time we even get to that point things will have probably stabilised and it may be much better situation for everyone. I honestly don't see why they want to be part of the EU. What it actually brings to the table once we are well and truly out but only time will tell.

I will vote to remain with the U.K. And if it's the same outcome again there should be a f'ing ban on any more referendums about f'ing independence! Does my head in!!!

Flyingfifer · Post by **Flyingfifer** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:34 am

It is a statement of fact, the term "Scottish People" refers to Scotland as a nation not every single individual voter! Further, Scotland, as a nation, voted in 1 tory MP out of a possible 59 with 14.9% of the vote, that means we have a Tory government that we, as a nation, didnt vote for. The SNP by contrast got 56MPs and slightly over 50% of the vote.

Traditionally SNP MPs didnt vote on english only matters and to a large extent they still dont however when it comes to the NHS in england they do simply because it has a direct financial impact via the Barnett Formula on the funding to Scotland.

I didnt vote YES based on the EU membership but inevitably some people will have voted with that being their primary concern, others will have voted NO with the EU being of secondary concern. The fact is that the NO campaign told us that a NO vote was the only way to stay in the EU, that is now no longer the case, people were sold a lie.

As mentioned above there are now a trail of broken promises and lies behind us in the last <2 years, that is why many NO voters now regret their vote.

Angie4m · Post by **Angie4m** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:41 am

Unfortunately as we live in a democracy we don't always get what we want. But you can twist everything to your own views. Just like politicians and they need to be carful about the language and words they use.

I still don't buy people were sold a lie based on what was fact at the time. Before a general election and a mandate that was carried out and wasn't even on the table really back then. But you see it your way and I see it mines and I respect that.

I think people need to understand that if there was another independence vote there is no guarantee that the other 27 member states of the EU would allow Scotland membership. Spain is a huge blocker to that for a start. So if Scotland can't get EU membership then what's the point of being independent because as far as I can see all this talk at the moment is hanging on the EU and being dragged out. I think they'd need to try and get firm confirmations that in the event of independence that they would get what they want.

AlfaScozzesi · Post by **AlfaScozzesi** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:33 am

Hi all.

I agree with everything that has been written above by fifer these are facts as I see them. It is also a fact that the SNP will use everything in their power to get another referendum.

A lot of Scots or people living in Scotland if voting today would change their vote. My English wife is one who has already expressed this view.

It is also a fact that Westminster would have to okay another referendum or the Scottish governement would have to go to court to call another referendum which I don't see happening anytime soon. As Angie has said the appetite for referendums and the direct democracy it delivers has quite plainly hurt the UK and we are yet to find out to what extent.

To confirm my views so everyone knows them I voted for Scotland to remain part of the U.K. As part of Europe ( my business exports 40% of its goods to the EU, so a personal choice) although I had many sympathies with the independence camp and could have quite easily voted for this.

This meant I also voted to remain in this last vote.

So at the moment I am an A or C but will wait to see what actually happens as the one thing we have got it time to see what happens.

Jasey · Post by **Jasey** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:42 am

A lot of people who voted to remain part of the UK are very upset at now potentially not being part of the EU.

If there were a second neverendum it would be much, much closer !

I think I'd go for B now !

Jasey · Post by **Jasey** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 11:54 am

"First Minister Nicola Sturgeon says she will seek "immediate discussions" with Brussels to "protect Scotland's place in the EU" after UK's vote to leave."

BBC News ! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36629331

Good luck with that Nicola !

exdos · Post by **exdos** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:00 pm

In the Scottish Independence Referendum, 55.3% of voters democratically voted to stay within the UK, so Scotland, as a one of four countries within the UK must accept the wishes of the entire UK in a referendum in which the entire electorate of the UK gets to vote. That's how Democracy works.

Gibraltar was included in the referendum, as part of the UK within the EU, but Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man didn't vote because they are not in the EU. Gibraltar, which is the only part of the "UK" in the referendum which lies on mainland Europe, returned a result of 95.9% in favour of remaining within the EU; the highest percentage vote to remain within the EU of all the local results in the referendum. Does Gibraltar now take the same stand as Sturgeon suggests for Scotland, and seek independence just because Gibraltar didn't get the result its electorate overwhelmingly voted for? Does Gibraltar now wish to give up British protection so it can remain in the EU as its preference whilst the Spanish are pushing even harder for "joint-sovereignty"?

If Scotland thinks it will be better off as an independent nation within the EU than it is, presently, within the UK but outside the EU, and most certainly whilst it has the Barnett Formula, then Sturgeon is fooling her people.

How would an Independent Scotland react if Putin decided to bring one of his submarines to the surface in a North Sea oil field in what Scotland claims to be its territorial waters? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... h-sea-nea/

There's a lot more to running a country than just the economy.

Flyingfifer · Post by **Flyingfifer** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:18 pm

Angie4m wrote:Unfortunately as we live in a democracy we don't always get what we want. But you can twist everything to your own views. Just like politicians and they need to be carful about the language and words they use.

I still don't buy people were sold a lie based on what was fact at the time. Before a general election and a mandate that was carried out and wasn't even on the table really back then. But you see it your way and I see it mines and I respect that.

I think people need to understand that if there was another independence vote there is no guarantee that the other 27 member states of the EU would allow Scotland membership. Spain is a huge blocker to that for a start. So if Scotland can't get EU membership then what's the point of being independent because as far as I can see all this talk at the moment is hanging on the EU and being dragged out. I think they'd need to try and get firm confirmations that in the event of independence that they would get what they want.

I haven't disputed that point, it is an obvious fact that we both live in a democracy and dont get what we want.
You are correct as well when you say that politicians need to be careful about the language and words they use, like when David Cameron told the Scottish people that only by voting no could they guarantee their membership to the EU.

People were sold a lie for the very reasons you mention, politicians and their language, it was very much put that only by voting NO could Scotland remain in the EU at no point was it added that "this was only right now and may well change later on if the UK decides to leave".

Firstly, Scotland is currently part of the EU, the negotiation would be for a continuation not a new application. As I mentioned above the EU membership isnt a silver bullet for me, I want to leave the UK regardless however Nicola Sturgeon is doing exactly that, she has already made it clear that discussions will begin with the EU and all member states RE Scotland's continuing membership.

AlfaScozzesi wrote: It is also a fact that Westminster would have to okay another referendum or the Scottish governement would have to go to court to call another referendum which I don't see happening anytime soon. As Angie has said the appetite for referendums and the direct democracy it delivers has quite plainly hurt the UK and we are yet to find out to what extent.

So at the moment I am an A or C but will wait to see what actually happens as the one thing we have got it time to see what happens.

That is indeed the case, I would assert though that to try and prevent another referendum would be substantially more problematic than to allow it.

Totally agree that we need to see whats happening over the next few weeks although the backtracking on promises to voters has already begun it seems.

exdos wrote:In the Scottish Independence Referendum, 55.3% of voters democratically voted to stay within the UK, so Scotland, as a one of four countries within the UK must accept the wishes of the entire UK in a referendum in which the entire electorate of the UK gets to vote. That's how Democracy works.

Gibraltar was included in the referendum, as part of the UK within the EU, but Jersey, Guernsey and the Isle of Man didn't vote because they are not in the EU. Gibraltar, which is the only part of the "UK" in the referendum which lies on mainland Europe, returned a result of 95.9% in favour of remaining within the EU; the highest percentage vote to remain within the EU of all the local results in the referendum. Does Gibraltar now take the same stand as Sturgeon suggests for Scotland, and seek independence just because Gibraltar didn't get the result its electorate overwhelmingly voted for? Does Gibraltar now wish to give up British protection so it can remain in the EU as its preference whilst the Spanish are pushing even harder for "joint-sovereignty"?

If Scotland thinks it will be better off as an independent nation within the EU than it is, presently, within the UK but outside the EU, and most certainly whilst it has the Barnett Formula, then Sturgeon is fooling her people.

How would an Independent Scotland react if Putin decided to bring one of his submarines to the surface in a North Sea oil field in what Scotland claims to be its territorial waters? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06 ... h-sea-nea/

There's a lot more to running a country than just the economy.

Indeed but part of that decision was various promises to the electorate many of which have now been broken, as an person who seems to be for democracy I am sure you understand why another vote is now needed.

If the people of Gibraltar want to become independent I would fully support their right to do so democratically.... are you saying you wouldn't?

Why wouldn't it be better off? Are you one of the "too wee, too poor, too stupid" crew?

We would send military craft to investigate, just as the UK has done in the past (although they wouldnt have to sale from Portsmouth first), I dont see your point?

markeg · Post by **markeg** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:30 pm

Flyingfifer wrote:... like when David Cameron told the Scottish people that only by voting no could they guarantee their membership to the EU.

The context is everything though - what was said was that a Yes vote would not guarantee membership of the EU, which was a position made by the Yes campaign. At that point, only by staying part of the UK could Scotland continue its EU membership

Flyingfifer wrote:Firstly, Scotland is currently part of the EU, the negotiation would be for a continuation not a new application.

Not as an individual entity, it isn't. The UK is currently part of the EU, the UK can trigger Article 50 and the UK can negotiate its way out of the EU. Scotland staying as part of those negotiations won't be on the table, so Scotland, as part of UK will come out. Anyone who says otherwise it being politic with the truth.

Sturgeon is currently grandstanding, aiming for another referendum and hoping to take advantage of the current turmoil to forward her own aims. I'm not convinced that one will happen at all, and even if it does, it will be after the current negotiations are completed, and Scotland will be out of the EU. Any IndyRef campaign will be interesting then - I'm sure the SNP position will be that the English forced them out, against their will. Of course, they cant blame London this time, as they also voted to Remain.

Flyingfifer · Post by **Flyingfifer** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:48 pm

markeg wrote: The context is everything though - what was said was that a Yes vote would not guarantee membership of the EU, which was a position made by the Yes campaign. At that point, only by staying part of the UK could Scotland continue its EU membership

Semantics.

The fact is this, he was happy to allow the suggestion to be that only by voting NO could Scotland stay in the EU. Yes we all know that isnt what he ACTUALLY said but come'on! You know fine well the general punter on the street heard Vote NO keep EU.

markeg wrote: Not as an individual entity, it isn't. The UK is currently part of the EU, the UK can trigger Article 50 and the UK can negotiate its way out of the EU. Scotland staying as part of those negotiations won't be on the table, so Scotland, as part of UK will come out. Anyone who says otherwise it being politic with the truth.

Correct, Scotland isnt specifically named as a member however we are undeniably part of the EU.
You have made a sweeping assumption there, Sturgeon has already begun communicating with the EU about Scotland staying, might it be in vain? Very possibly! But then its also very possibly not and the EU could have an interest in keeping Scotland.

markeg wrote: Sturgeon is currently grandstanding, aiming for another referendum and hoping to take advantage of the current turmoil to forward her own aims. I'm not convinced that one will happen at all, and even if it does, it will be after the current negotiations are completed, and Scotland will be out of the EU. Any IndyRef campaign will be interesting then - I'm sure the SNP position will be that the English forced them out, against their will. Of course, they cant blame London this time, as they also voted to Remain.

Incorrect, the legislative process for the calling of another vote has already begun with the sole aim of having the option to call a vote within the 24month time-scale laid down by article 50.

PerryGunn · Post by **PerryGunn** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:55 pm

Flyingfifer wrote:...Scotland is currently part of the EU, the negotiation would be for a continuation not a new application...

I don't know why people, not just you, refer to 'continuation' of EU membership as Scotland doesn't currently enjoy 'membership' of the EU - Scotland is part of the EU but this is by dint of being part of the UK.

Scotland isn't a member state of the EU, the UK is the member state and when the UK leaves that means that the whole of the UK leaves - The EU only deals in member states, it has no mechanism for anything else and changing this would require a new Treaty (which would have to be ratified by all member states).

AIUI, Scotland would not be able to become a member state until they are legally an independent country and as that will not happen before the UK leaves the EU it will require a new application. I know some people have been saying 'if Scotland votes for independence before the UK leaves the EU....' but a vote for independence does not, in itself, make Scotland an independent country.

markeg · Post by **markeg** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 2:57 pm

Flyingfifer wrote: Semantics.

markeg wrote: Sturgeon is currently grandstanding, aiming for another referendum and hoping to take advantage of the current turmoil to forward her own aims. I'm not convinced that one will happen at all, and even if it does, it will be after the current negotiations are completed, and Scotland will be out of the EU. Any IndyRef campaign will be interesting then - I'm sure the SNP position will be that the English forced them out, against their will. Of course, they cant blame London this time, as they also voted to Remain.
Incorrect, the legislative process for the calling of another vote has already begun with the sole aim of having the option to call a vote within the 24month time-scale laid down by article 50.

I think that, semantically, you don't mean incorrect. You have an opinion, mine differs. It is not incorrect. Just because the process has begun in Holyrood, doesn't mean that it will happen anytime soon. My opinion is that it will not gain sufficient traction to happen prior to the EU departure. Also, I don't think Article 50 states it will take 2 years - thats an estimate from some talking heads [Edit: just re-read it, its up to 2 years to agree terms as there are a number of trade agreements, tarriffs, etc all to be agreed between all EU states and UK. It may be shorter, but any longer than 2 years means the UK departs with no agreements in place. That will be why Article 50 hasn't been invoked yet]

I notice that you didn't disagree that Sturgeon is using the current turmoil to advance her own agenda...

skelters · Post by **skelters** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 4:45 pm

Scottish Independence is pretty much unstoppable.

Lib Dems have come out supporting Nicola Sturgeon and the EU talks.

Scottish Labour need to come out in support of Scottish Independence or they will be consigned to oblivion.

Even the Daily Record seems to be supporting Scottish Independence along with ex Labour MP's and other journalists. All were previously No supporters.

Tory infighting and anti SNP rhetoric is about to disappear as both Labour and the Tories realise they're doomed if the do and doomed if they don't.

There will be new Polls out next week (possibly Monday) that will show support for Scottish Independence at around 60%. I will not be surprised if it's even higher than that.

I would suggest that no matter what your political views are, what country you are from, whether you're Scottish or not, no matter which way you voted on the EU Referendum and no matter what your views are on Scottish Indpendence that you pay very close attention to what the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon are doing at the moment. Brexit cannot happen if there's any question of Scotland becoming the continuing state in the EU. UK Brexit talks would be a waste of time as they would be irrelevant if Scotland leaves the UK. There would also need to be talks on the terms of Scottish membership of the EU. So no EU talks until after a 2nd Scottish Independence Referendum.

The Tories won't play Article 50 for 3 months. The EU have told them it's to be this week. Meanwhile the SNP are contacting all EU states for their views on Scotland as the continuing state. Expect visits to and from different heads of State by Nicola Sturgeon and John Swinney.

Within a few weeks there will be announcements supporting Scotland as the continuing state within the EU after Independence.

Indyref2 will be after the Scottish Council Elections in May 2017. Probably around September 2017. It could however be this year with the way things are going although there is the next General Election in November to deal with first.

The people of Scotland will decide their own destiny not Westminster.

Al I have to say about Ruth Davidson is that it's a compliment to call someone a c**t in Scotland and an insult to call them a Tory c**t.

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