E85 values - bottomed out, peaked or something else…?

[JimmyRichE85]

Thought I would try and establish what the current barometer read is for E85 prices, given the wealth of knowledge and experience on this forum…

My perspective is that of a novice enthusiast who is not linked to the trade in any way but spent 6 months looking for (and eventually buying) “The One” recently.

I’d been looking for a weekend toy to partly appease a significant age milestone coming up and partly for wanting something I could get my 9 year old son to get involved with together. My search started off in the world of 911’s (996 C4S) but after some disappointing viewings of high priced cars not being up to scratch and becoming ever paranoid about the potential catastrophic engine failures these cars were prone to, I decided to change tact. I saw a beautiful E85 one summers day in 2023 and it really sparked my interest- after a bit of online research, I realised that this ticked a lot of boxes and so the search commenced…

To start with I didn’t have a precise model in mind - more I wanted to try and find something special that came with high levels of provenance. Very quickly I realised realised that it was either a 2.5 or 3.0 that I wished to focus on but wasn’t initially too concerned about gearbox, M54 or N52 or spec.

After lots more reading and deliberation, I started to watch a handful of vehicles to see what was selling and the relative prices- I was in no rush and reckoned the best time to buy would be around Christmas when not many are in the market for a soft top with a relatively big engine.
It soon became clear that the strongest prices were for the 3.0 and manual gearboxes were more in demand- so my attention turned to looking for the best 3.0 that I could find. I noticed that spec seemed to have a big impact on what was selling, particularly the wheels and seats - 18” ellipsoid alloys with sport seats appearing to be linked to cars which sold quicker than others.

So, after many months of looking I finally found “The One” on a journey that highlighted:-

1. The number of good E85’s out there is on the decline- cars with under 100k miles, low number of owners, comprehensive service history and relatively unmodified - look to becoming harder to find
2. Entry level 2.0 E85 represents some fantastic used buys and make a much stronger case than an equivalent MX5! A budget of £2k to £4k can get you something highly respectable.
3. The 2.5i E85 commands more of a following than the entry level 2.0 and a budget of £3k to £5k secures a cracking example
4. The 3.0 E85 looks to be in most demand and have the greatest range of prices. £4k to £5k seems to be the starting point for a solid car per my description in point 1. £6k to £8k brings in some great offerings- most likely to be a 50k to 70k miles car with less than 5 owners and good history, with higher end being 3.0Si Sport at this level
5. The top end of the market at £8k to £11k is reserved for some quite unique vehicles which will be most likely less than 50k miles, handful of owners with fully documented histories and very high specs
6. So, from my observations, particularly on 3.0 manual versions, prices look to have bottomed out at around £5k - at this price you can get a good honest car which you can enjoy for many years and not lose much money on…

To conclude, I’d say prices have definitely now bottomed out and the value for money on E85’s will see them only getting more desirable over time - they’re a great analog driving machine which will deliver so many more memorable moments than todays digital electrified offerings.

Clearly, this is just an opinion and I’m sure others will have a different perspective….

[Pondrew]

Fantastic write up and I agree.

If the recent prices of the previous generation of Z3 is anything to go by....a well looked after, low mileage E85/6 should have bottomed and could be set to rise.

There are two issues with the above, though, IMO.

1. Too many people (including the trade) are still looking at 2022/23 prices and not getting with the 'new normal'. This is bound to affect asking prices of new to market cars, as the world sets asking prices based on what others are asking (even the trade do this). With the internet it is easy to gauge asking prices in a matter of minutes. Not so easy with selling prices, though.

2. These cars are getting very old now. They are neither classic, nor modern. Sort of a 'no man's land'....or just an 'old' car at the moment. Many are knackered and unless they are a sure fire bet to become a 'classic' who is going to restore a knackered one?

The Z3 market is very similar at the moment.....there are cars for sale for £500 up to £15k (not Ms, they are a different market). I think the jury is still out on whether the Z3 is going to be a bona fide classic or not. BTW they are pretty crap (I have one...well half a one).

Used car prices are on the fall across the board. They have a long way to go before we get back to the depreciation of the old days (pre covid), but it seems to be happening slowly. The last 3 or 4 years have been stupid, for reasons I fail to understand.

[JimmyRichE85]

Fantastic write up and I agree.

If the recent prices of the previous generation of Z3 is anything to go by....a well looked after, low mileage E85/6 should have bottomed and could be set to rise.

There are two issues with the above, though, IMO.

1. Too many people (including the trade) are still looking at 2022/23 prices and not getting with the 'new normal'. This is bound to affect asking prices of new to market cars, as the world sets asking prices based on what others are asking (even the trade do this). With the internet it is easy to gauge asking prices in a matter of minutes. Not so easy with selling prices, though.

2. These cars are getting very old now. They are neither classic, nor modern. Sort of a 'no man's land'....or just an 'old' car at the moment. Many are knackered and unless they are a sure fire bet to become a 'classic' who is going to restore a knackered one?

The Z3 market is very similar at the moment.....there are cars for sale for £500 up to £15k (not Ms, they are a different market). I think the jury is still out on whether the Z3 is going to be a bona fide classic or not. BTW they are pretty crap (I have one...well half a one).

Used car prices are on the fall across the board. They have a long way to go before we get back to the depreciation of the old days (pre covid), but it seems to be happening slowly. The last 3 or 4 years have been stupid, for reasons I fail to understand.

Thanks for sharing your feedback on this topic - I agree wholeheartedly with the points you raise.

Re point 1 - you are spot on - I have only been tracking advertised prices and watching what sells from there - if a car has disappeared from my search and doesn’t come back within a few weeks then I have assumed it’s been sold and that it would be in the region of the advertised price- so more of a proxy than an exact price….

Re point 2 - my perspective is that those cars which are beyond economic repair will continue, meaning the supply of good ones becomes less and less - a quick search on AT this morning reveals there are only fourteen 3 litre manuals for sale with less than 100k miles - which in the grand scheme of things isn’t that many… A good old case of supply and demand!

Fundamentally, for me, when searching for “The One” it was a case of 2 other important factors- head vs heart and a quote my father used to say - the value of something is only as much as somebody is prepared to pay…. My car ended up being right at the top end of the market and above my original budget but after seeing and driving it and realising I would struggle to find anything like it, then I rationalised it was worth it to me … 3 months in and I have no regrets whatsoever though find myself constantly making mini investments on items to enhance the car in any small way

[ryushe]

I'm just constantly amazed at the prices of Z4s in the UK. When I bought my current 3.0si not even a year ago I paid what seems like a very fair market value here in the Netherlands, at around £11200,- converted. Mine even had 100k+ miles on it (165.000 km) when I bought it.
Average prices for a 2.5 or 3.0 depending on age and it being a facelift version or not still go strong around £7500 for a somewhat decent one.

With your prices I'd have filled my driveway with Z4s by now

[pvr]

I'm just constantly amazed at the prices of Z4s in the UK. When I bought my current 3.0si not even a year ago I paid what seems like a very fair market value here in the Netherlands, at around £11200,- converted. Mine even had 100k+ miles on it (165.000 km) when I bought it.
Average prices for a 2.5 or 3.0 depending on age and it being a facelift version or not still go strong around £7500 for a somewhat decent one.

With your prices I'd have filled my driveway with Z4s by now

Which is what I did with the cars as I am no longer living in NL

[enuff_zed]

I agree with nearly all the sentiments expressed except for the dated British fixation with 100k.
I would have no qualms in buying a higher mileage than that. The M54 certainly will go on to 250k with sensible maintenance. I’ve also recently worked in an N52 in a coupe that purred like new with 180k on it.

The biggest issue is that when these cars drop below £1500 then perfectly serviceable ones become profitable in parts. If I buy one at that price and do it up I will struggle to get my money back. But if I break it I’ll make a profit.

So numbers will dwindle but hopefully the donor cars will help others stay on the road until their prices recover

[STC_Zed]

I agree with nearly all the sentiments expressed except for the dated British fixation with 100k.
I would have no qualms in buying a higher mileage than that. The M54 certainly will go on to 250k with sensible maintenance. I’ve also recently worked in an N52 in a coupe that purred like new with 180k on it.

The biggest issue is that when these cars drop below £1500 then perfectly serviceable ones become profitable in parts. If I buy one at that price and do it up I will struggle to get my money back. But if I break it I’ll make a profit.

So numbers will dwindle but hopefully the donor cars will help others stay on the road until their prices recover

Absolutely agree, mileage is pretty irrelevant in my opinion especially as these cars get old; maintenance and condition are far more important especially if you’re looking for a car with a decent spec. The UK is still very, very focused on mileage above all else.

My wife’s E91 330i is fast approaching 172k. A friend of mine had a 125i (also an N52) that he took to 250k with little or no issue.

[coldel]

Nice to read the journey to purchase. Would note that cars disappearing from sales sites does not mean they sold at that price. When I bought my E86 a couple of years back I knocked a fair bit off for scratches/non functioning parking sensors etc.

And hate to be picky and agreeing with the sentiment above, but you can have a very good car that is over 100k miles. I also am completely confused about the 100k miles thing, cars dont have inbuilt timers that detonate at 100k miles The bonus side of this is those of us who do not obsess over mileage get great bargains when that number is ticked over

[Zedebee]

Nevertheless, it is an inescapable fact of the British market that higher mileage equals cheaper. This is great for those in the know who want to buy a keeper or don’t want a lot of money tied up in a car, but if you genuinely want an “investment” the only way is to buy low mileage and not put any miles on.

That said, I don’t think any Z4 is ever going to appreciate significantly except perhaps the very best (in this context means lowest mileage) M coupes.

[pvr]

Well, my higher mileage (90k) equated to additional spent of £6k on top of the purchase price to get it up to spec, so economically it would never make sense to buy a high miler if you plan to sell it after a couple of years or so.

At least it is now only getting only E5 fuel and is garaged so hopefully it prevents further damage from cheap fuel as well as outside storage.

[tomscott]

E85/6s have been flatlining for about 10 years, pre covid you could pick up 100k 3.0 for sub 3k. The likes of Joel got his YouTube career going off cars like this so I don't think they have flatlined they have increased in value over covid as they are the sports car bargain of the car world really. The appreciation wasn't huge tho and the edge cases are going for good money but non seem to be shifting. Anything in the M world over the 23k bracket is sat and has sat for a long long time.

From the appreciation stand point they haven't moved half as well as other brands. Me and my dad bought a 996 4S convertible in a rare colour combo with 90k right at the beginning of covid for 18.5k had all the checks and all the right work done it just needed cosmetics moved it on 2 years later for £26k. It wasn't to make money just so happened the market went crazy, it was just for fun project and we really enjoyed the car, my dad just decided he wanted something else and got a 981 GTS instead so we sold out and split.

Now that all cars are depreciating Z4s seem to have taken a bit of a dive and also its because people are back to their usual and they are being offloaded but I don't think were quite where we were.

In terms of buying it depends on how you see these cars that are nearly 22 years old. From what I see there are a quite a few camps. People who buy cheap for a season and Z4s are super seasonal (which is why there are so many high owner cars), maybe for a road trip then ditch it. Enthusiasts who want a straight 6 two seater for the weekend and like tinkering probably a second or third car, people who buy these as their only car and pile on the miles, there seem to be loads of people buying, fixing and shifting in the Z4 space atm and the guys who like garage queens and pamper them.

From the milage perspective, if you are happy with accepting the cars as they are and enjoying them because they are cheap and it doesn't make financial sense to get them back to showroom. Or whether like me, im quite anal and mainly take the car to shows, it depends which side of the coin you land on.

Il also preempt this by saying not all high milage cars are the same, the ones that have been well cared are different and if you buy on condition you can get a bargain. It is quite hard to find good condition cars that have good history these days.

I don't think its mechanics that people always worry about with 100+K cars its all the other little bits. Personally I hate all the tactile areas of a car being warn and in poor condition, its the main experience you get at the helm and how you control the car and for me it directly affects the experience of driving the car.

Zs aren't known for having the most quality materials and the interiors do wear especially when lots of small journeys have been done. Seat bolsters - you can repair the leather pretty easily but the foam compresses, deforms and inevitably needs replacing, same with the seat bottom, mines done 80k and compared to the passenger side its a noticeable difference.

Here's an example bart did recently, amazing work on the leather and recolour but the foam is past its best and needs replacing.

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Things you touch like the steering wheel and button surrounds, soft touch plastics that wear horribly. You can get rid of the coating and then spray them as a DIY but I haven't seen any that look right yet. You can also wrap them in 3m grey matt lam which I have seen some decent results from. But if you were to buy some new surrounds they are like £200 then the buttons are another £250.

My cigarette lighter was broken because the clip its secured with isn't very strong and over the years pulling a plug in and out of it eventually the clip snapped. A replacement panel second hand in good condition was £100. Because mines an M and is soft touch trying to find one in good condition without the soft touch plastic marked or warn was quite difficult.

Most enthusiasts like their car to look good and paint is a key aspect. The Z does suffer more from road rash because it's so low, front end and the side skirts. You can have them repainted cheaply where the panels aren't taken off but it's not going to be the best job and you tend to find water will get under the lacquer and peel over time so its a trade off cost to quality. To have a front end respray done properly is in the region of £1-2k bonnet, bumper and wings.

Trying to find a Z without wear marks on the roof is so difficult too, mine is through the mohair on both sides because it's rubbed against the rubber seal at the back over the years unfortunately it was like this when I bought it but its a 1-4 and finding another was going to be difficult. You can find second hand replacements for £250 but I haven't found one worth buying yet, the only one I have seen worth buying was £600 which was perfect and then if your not handy it needs fitting.

The other elements as have been talked about in loads of threads is stuff like suspension, the Sachs struts are rubbish and leak air so many don't think they need replacing. So many Zs are known to have broken spring issues but it's more likely that the struts have failed and the car is only really on the springs. Regardless of age and milage all E85/6s will need the struts replacing at this point.

When you're talking about cars that are 3-8k then sorting these small bits that all Zs suffer with can rack up pretty quickly and its a reason they are cheap to begin with.

I also think this is why lower milage cars are appealing. They tend to have been used less so these bits are nicer to start with, yes inevitably you will get more depreciation if you end up using it as intended but its harder to sort a car that is already well used than get a lighter used car back up to showroom.

Mines not low milage but not high either averaging 4.5k since it was new. Still looks in pretty good condition.

BMW Z4M Roadster, Zedfest 2023 by Tom Scott, on Flickr

BMW Z4M Roadster Zedfest by Tom Scott, on Flickr

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(Removed the stickers from the previous owner now!)

People never talk about the money they have spent on their cars... because its a false economy and you will never ever make money when you consider, tax insurance and maintenance.

Im in about 20k on my Z4M. I paid 14.5 for it in 2019 with 63k on the clock, its a rare combo being 1-4 in the uk and I bought it so I could enjoy, its in good enough condition that I could also show it but it also needed some work. Ive done 17k in it so far and current plans are a sus refresh, bearings, mounts and a little bit of a freshen up paint wise it will probably be in the 25k cost space.

WBAC doesn't mean much but they offered me 4.5k for it last week. I laughed and deleted the email.

That being said the trade in market has fallen off a cliff, probably because with decreasing values a lot of dealerships are dealing with massive depreciation of their stock. Z4Ms under 80K are going for 14-28k on autotrader still tho... it would be interesting to see what they actually sell for.

Another element specific to Ms is the cost of maintenance and tax that's another reason they have been cheap and remain cheap. For what the Z offers in M spec for 14k is ridiculous value for money really. You would need to double plus that to buy anything in the Porsche space that also doesn't need 10k spent in the near future.

Thankfully im not interested in selling mine but it does lead to some depressing figures.

Suppose the moral is which ever end you buy from they always need something

[coldel]

Nice post. As always agree with some and not other points made within it.

Ownership experience for the car in its lifetime is everything, I saw some low mileage dogs that would cost a fortune to put right and some high mileage stunners that just needed some TLC around the edges. Beware the low miler that has spent its life by the sea

For me, buy on condition every single time. When I saw the bundle of receipts from water pump to tyres to suspension to new brakes and discs to god knows how many other things, buying my E85 on 115k miles was a no brainer. If you look at the project thread, in a year I have spent peanuts on it because I bought on condition.

Also one persons garage labour cost is another persons weekend hobby. I am fortunate enough to have a family full of car mechanics who can help out where my skill set finishes. If you can wield a spanner you can get away with buying a car that requires work if all you are covering are the parts.

Whats interesting, is the super low mile cars will probably cost you a lot more to put right. Cars love to be driven. They hate sitting around. Just try sit in an office chair for 10 hours then get up and hear your body creak and ache Anything super low miles I would expect pretty much anything made of rubber to need replacing

[Zedebee]

Lovely car Tom.

[pvr]

Anything super low miles I would expect pretty much anything made of rubber to need replacing

That depends on how the car is stored, outside - then yes, everything will be gone.

My Golf is now 31 years old, and not a single item has been replaced besides a starter motor. Everything else is original and looks and feels like new. No rust underneath and all the rubbers are in good condition. Just gets an annual service at the VW dealer.

[coldel]

Anything super low miles I would expect pretty much anything made of rubber to need replacing

That depends on how the car is stored, outside - then yes, everything will be gone.

My Golf is now 31 years old, and not a single item has been replaced besides a starter motor. Everything else is original and looks and feels like new. No rust underneath and all the rubbers are in good condition. Just gets an annual service at the VW dealer.

Exactly, buy on condition.

My point was more generic in that people make an assumption a low miler is good to go and have no problems or things to replace, when in fact thats not a good assumption to make and again condition is everything.